February 2009
80 posts
2 tags
“I was involved in trading for 21 years and I can testify that traders...”
– Nassim Taleb The idea of banks as utilities previously discussed here and here.
Bobby Jindal admits he made up that whole... →
spiegelman:
When did Republicans become so pathologically bumbling?
Unreal.
1 tag
Economy "Recover"? Please. It Needs To Reboot →
I’ve been thinking about this a lot and I think it defines the difference between the US consumer / economy and the rest of the world going forward. Since WWII and more so since 1981 / Reagan, US growth has been fueled by massive expansions in public and private debt. I don’t think that pace will continue for at least one generation, probably two - it took fifty-plus years after 1929...
Comments v. Reblogs
azspot:
Marco wrote:
This is exactly the rationale behind using reblogs as a means of debate and discussion.
The main reason I don’t allow comments is that I want to inspire debate. I think people do their best writing when they’re forced to defend their ideas on their own turf. It’s one thing to leave a comment on someone else’s blog, but quite another to put your argument in front of your...
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“‘The strength of America is not found in our government. It is found in...”
– David Corn
I bowled my first-ever turkey last night.
Why is it called a turkey?
The term dates back to before the turn of the 20th century. In those years, scoring was much more difficult and to get three strikes in a row was quite an achievement. During Thanksgiving or Christmas week, the proprietor would present a live turkey to the first person on each team who scored three consecutive strikes. The term has carried over ever since.
what's your favourite word?
lovepuppy:
fullcredit:
lizziejeanne:
dweeler:
jspurg:
strawburyduck:
lovehopehate:
srsly:
theprosaic:
scatteredwords:
i like “carbaminohemoglobin” and “scattered”
hence my blog name.
sponge and box
Defenestrate.
Scandal
Superfluous.
atrocious
Unununium - 111th element on the periodic table
et cetera - it’s technically two, and it’s technically Latin. But I love...
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“We have lived through an era where too often, short-term gains were prized over...”
– Barack Obama
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Japan Exports Plummet 45.7% →
This is such a huge number, I don’t think I understand it.
What's up with this gchat virus?
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Anyone else’s dashboard acting up a little? Posts disappearing and reappearing?
American Express offering buyouts... to... →
mandalay:
(via alexbalk)
I’d be interested to hear one of you financial people’s take on this. Chris maybe? -M
My guess is this won’t work because the people AmEx is likely to offer this to won’t be able to get a new credit card and do a balance transfer right now. If it does work, it sounds like a good deal for both AmEx and the consumer.
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Of Course We're Going To Inflate Our Way Out Of... →
Of course. But I’ve said this before.
Is it time to overhaul the Dow index? →
Why not? Here are my picks to replace any members of the DJIA that are kicked out this year (most likely General Motors, Citigroup and Bank of America):
UPS
Exelon
Google
Medtronic
A real stunner would be Toyota but I don’t think there’s ever been a foreign company included.
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Sen. Lugar says US must rethink Cuba embargo →
+1
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No. Thank you.
Brad DeLong emailed to thank me for calling him charming. It’s a pretty big reminder that you never know who is going to read what you write and the power of the Internet. Here is what he added to my statement that I see more downside risk to the US market:
The 1907 bottom was above 10! And even when stocks are at a Graham ratio of 15 their average return over the subsequent 20 years is 6%...
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“I usually don’t like to speak so negatively, but it’s the advocates of...”
– Tyler Cowen (via jeffmiller)
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U.S. Lawmakers Clash Over Nationalizing Banks to... →
Barack Obama, Barney Frank and Jon Kyl vs Chris Dodd, Lindsey Graham and Alan Greenspan.
Paul Kedrosky: Greenspan's Hidden Agenda →
On Greenspan’s recent comments that bank nationalization isn’t a bad idea:
[I]t is a myth that we need banks lending so we can have more debt to get us out of debt—that bit of circularity escapes too many people—but we do need banks all the same. Having the current crop playing mirror-world Price Is Right games with their assets while they wait out the current recession/depression...
Binyam Mohamed, war crimes investigations, and... →
So, to recap: first, the U.S. abducted Mohamed and refused to provide him with any access to lawyers or the outside world. Then — with no due process afforded — we shipped him around for the next couple of years to various countries that are the most notorious practitioners of torture, where agents of those countries and the CIA jointly conducted interrogations by brutally torturing him. ...
“The last film about India to collect an Oscar for best picture was Gandhi, the...”
– FT
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“Lawmakers from Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party last week proposed...”
– Bloomberg Possibly even more creative than the mattress with a built-in safe. I love that I’m learning of both ideas on the same day. One is trying to convince people to take money out of their mattress; the other saying it’s ok to leave it there, just do it safely.
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Watch“Fast Food in China”. Amazing.
The best health insurance for you.
jayparkinsonmd:
For the average person with no significant expensive chronic problems, the best insurance strategy for you is:
Purchase a high deductible health plan for $140 a month (ideally with an associated Health Savings Account (HSA))
Discontinue the traditional, expensive pre-paid health care plan we’re all used to (say this costs $600 a month ($7200 a year))
Put the cost difference...
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“Hey. ‘Timing is everything.’ That’s a cliche… now. ...”
– Demetri Martin
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The Big Picture: Fair Value for S&P = 440 →
WSJ:
“As-reported” earnings per share — which, unlike “operating” EPS, conform to accounting standards — of companies in the S&P 500 are on pace to total just $28.75 for the past four quarters, according to Standard & Poor’s. That is roughly 61% below where they would be had they maintained a 6% growth rate in recent years, estimates Vitaliy Katsenelson, head of research at Investment...
1 tag
WSJ Editorial Page: Can a newspaper be more... →
About Obama’s list of reporters to call on at the press conference.
“Christians have Christmas. Atheists have Charles Darwin’s birthday.”
– Josh Harkinson
“Lärabars are particularly handy—made of dried fruit and nuts, they are...”
– Magic Molly: Advice on eating dense bricks of food in public
2 tags
“China looks set to be the first major economy to recover from the current global...”
– Lu Ting, an economist with Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, China’s Economy Shows Signs of Recovery on Stimulus
“Algorithms in business appear to be magical, because they allow you to be smart...”
– Seth Godin (via azspot)
“A 2007 study by the University of California, Davis and the US Forest Service...”
– SEED (via therealjanelle)
Duck v. Duct
jeffmiller:
mattlehrer:
Well said, especially the part about being uncomfortable with the new pipe we don’t know, but it’s ‘duct tape’ not ‘duck tape’
Well, it’s a little more complicated. More here.
Interesting. I will certainly take Safire’s word for it, thanks. This reminds me of the time, junior year of college, when I finally learned that even though the school I went to from...
Well said, especially the part about being... →
1 tag
China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasuries →
Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the Chinese central bank, says that China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt won’t be eroded by “reckless policies.”