The next crisis is already under way
Everyone has referenced Einhorn’s latest. It’s good, but this was the best thing I read today. Punchline:
What you should draw from this is the following:
The Great Moderation is revealed as an illusion once we reach the zero bound, where interest rates are near zero. At this point the asset-price reflation can no longer rely on interest rates alone, but must also use increasingly heavy-handed tactics to get the economy going. This is where we now are.
Terminal Debt is fast approaching. Steve Keen believes we are at a Terminal Debt stage, where no more debt can possibly be accumulated to revive growth. However, I have presented you with evidence that this is not necessarily the case (see posts here and here). Nevertheless, it is fast approaching.
The central bank is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t. This was the takeaway of the Scylla and Charybdis post: All roads lead to a W-style Japanese depression or a deflationary bust because deflation is secular (Terminal Debt) while inflation is cyclical (asset prices). An inflationary scenario will invite a policy response which kills the recovery.
This is good for government bonds but not for risky assets. Longer-term, this is a good environment for government bonds. They are the risk-free asset in an environment of secular deflation. Shares are not a good investment in this situation despite huge rallies. Remember, we saw huge bear market rallies after 1929 and again in Japan after 1990.
Excellent post.
Notes
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