QQ: Is the current boom in clean energy technologies sustainable, or will it bust as it did in the wake of the 1970s oil shocks?

I’m writing a paper on this now. Feel free to share your insight via reblog/email.

My sense is mostly yes, it is sustainable, for the following reasons:

I believe in peak oil and that we are at or past the peak. i.e., we have no choice.
The 70s oil shocks were supply side (OPEC limited production and could and did easily increase production later), whereas the vast majority of the recent price increases are because of increasing demand. (There has also been some increase due to the fear/threat of supply disruption. The price has gone up significantly in currencies other than the dollar, but, yes, we’ve had it worse.) Therefore, we are unlikely to have much relief.
The increase in demand is likely to get worse (even though in the very short term we will see a decrease or slowdown with this recession). The last time I looked at the numbers was a couple of years ago but I believe these are still fairly accurate. People in the US use on average 21 barrels of oil per person per year and the average Chinese person uses 1.8 barrels of oil per person per year. The US is out of control but even if China gets to the industrialized level of S. Korea (approximately 10-11 barrels), we will be begging for $4 per gallon gas (this increase from 1.8 to 10, times 1.3 billion people in China is equal to one third of current worldwide oil production of 86 million barrels per day). How that demand, which *is* coming, will be satisfied, I don’t know but I do know the price is going up.
I might be deluding myself, but I believe people are slowly starting to want change and want to change themselves. The overwhelming evidence of climate change, whether caused by man or not, is hard to ignore. Who doesn’t want the planet to be around for their kids to enjoy?

My guess is nuclear is our best option if we can find a way to satisfy the NIMBYs. I think progress is being made here. France seems to be doing fine getting 80% of its electricity from nuclear. In the US, this is probably 60% a PR problem and 40% a what-do-we-do-with-the-waste problem but I could be very wrong there. I don’t know much about Yucca Mountain or the alternatives. I won’t talk about all the money pouring into alternatives because your question assumes it is there…
I said ‘mostly yes’ to begin because I think there is a chance it will ebb in the next 18 months or so due to the effects of this recession, either because of a decrease in the price of oil (lower demand) or because, very likely, financing will not be available.